Posts Tagged ‘Oscar Predictions 2012’

Next Movie – Oscar predictions


09 Jan

Updated January 9, 2013.

Can you feel the excitement in the air?

Oscar nominations will be announced tomorrow, and the children of America couldn’t be more excited, despite the long odds “Katy Perry: Part of Me” faces in the Best Documentary category.

Here are my updated predictions (you can see my picks in every category on Gold Derby), with picks in all categories to come post-nominations. We need to have a training montage and get you ready for that office pool. I hope you’ve been doing crunches.

Projected winners in bold, because, uh, that’s how I make predictions. Boldly.

Best Picture

There have already been a few quote-unquote frontrunners in this race, starting with “festival buzz” surrounding “Silver Linings Playbook” and “Argo,” moving along to “early screening buzz” surrounding “Les Miserables” (or as I call it, “The Miserables,” since I’m American) and most recently moving into award nomination/critic groups madness, where “Zero Dark Thirty” has been kicking serious Taliban ass.

In the end, Best Picture always comes down to a two-pony race (though unfortunately rarely do those two movies involve ponies), be it “Social Network” vs. “The King’s Speech” or “Shakespeare in Love” vs. “Saving Private Ryan.” This year those ponies are looking like “Zero Dark Thirty” and “Lincoln.”

As for number of contenders (it can fall anywhere between five and 10), considering it was such a fine year for movies, we’ll go with the maximum of 10:

Predictions:
“Amour”
“Beasts of the Southern Wild”
“Argo”
“Django Unchained”
“Les Miserables”
“Life of Pi”
“Lincoln”
“The Master”
“Silver Linings Playbook”
“Skyfall”
“Zero Dark Thirty”

Other Contenders:
“Best Exotic Marigold Hotel”
“The Dark Knight Rises”
“Flight”
“The Master”
“Moonrise Kingdom”

Best Director

Best Director will be one of the most intriguing races to watch develop this year (you know, if you’re into this stuff). You have the fan favorite/one of the feel-good stories of the year in Ben Affleck and his third straight filmmaking triumph (and best film yet) facing off against Kathryn Bigelow and Tom Hooper, two of the last three Best Director winners

Since the The Academy can often always be about politics and they love themselves a Comeback Story (so long as it’s not Mickey Rourke’s), Big Ben’s gotta be the guy to beat here.

Predictions:
Ben Affleck, “Argo”
Kathryn Bigelow, “Zero Dark Thirty”
Tom Hooper, “Les Miserables”
Ang Lee, “Life of Pi”
Steven Spielberg, “Lincoln”

Other Contenders:
Paul Thomas Anderson, “The Master”
Michael Haneke, “Amour”
David O. Russell, “Silver Linings Playbook”
Quentin Tarantino, “Django Unchained”

Best Actor

It probably doesn’t matter who else gets nominated in this typically crowded field, Daniel Day-Lewis (GOAT?) will win his third Oscar for his predictably immaculate portrayal of the nation’s 16th president (who was kind of a quirkball, it turns out). Now let’s just hope the method man DDL shows up at the Oscars, in character and costume, to accept the award. That way there’d actually be some semblance of surprise here.

Predictions:
Bradley Cooper, “Silver Linings Playbook”
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Lincoln”
Hugh Jackman, “Les Miserables”
John Hawkes, “The Sessions”
Denzel Washington, “Flight”

Other Contenders:
Anthony Hopkins, “Hitchcock”
Joaquin Phoenix, “The Master”
Christoph Waltz, “Django Unchained”

Best Actress

There are two certainties in life: You will die (sorry), and there will always be more strong roles for men in Hollywood than for women. We can at least hope the second one changes, but this year doesn’t bode so well. It might sound cold but so far there doesn’t seem to be a singular role that’s knocking people out. The LA Film Critics Association must’ve agreed – they called a tie (between Jennifer Lawrence and Emmanuelle Riva).

Let’s just blame Meryl Streep, for goofing off with Tommy Lee Jones in “Hope Springs” when she could’ve been lining up for her 400th nomination.

Predictions:
Jessica Chastain, “Zero Dark Thirty”
Marion Cotillard, “Rust and Bone”
Jennifer Lawrence, “Silver Linings Playbook”
Emmanuelle Riva, “Amour”
Naomi Watts, “The Impossible”

Other Contenders:
Keira Knightley, “Anna Karenina”
Helen Mirren, “Hitchcock”
Quvenzhane Wallis, “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
Rachel Weisz, “The Deep Blue Sea”

Also Check Out: 2013 Oscar Predictions on Film.com

Best Supporting Actor

This may be the strongest race in all of Awardsland. There are three thesps here I wouldn’t be all that surprised to see win it: Philip Seymour Hoffman for “The Master” (have you ever seen a man’s face get so red?), Tommy Lee Jones for “Lincoln” (have you ever seen TLJ so sad?) and Robert De Niro for “Silver Linings” (it’s his best movie/performance in 20 years! Which isn’t saying all that much!). But a special shout out to Javier Bardem, whomwe’ve been championing since first seeing “Skyfall.” We were beginning to think the rest of the world had a bias against bi-curious villains, but then there he was as a SAG nominee, and officially in the race.

Predictions:
Javier Bardem, “Skyfall”
Robert De Niro, “Silver Linings Playbook”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “Django Unchained”
Philip Seymour Hoffman, “The Master”
Tommy Lee Jones, “Lincoln”

Other Contenders:
Alan Arkin, “Argo”
Dwight Henry, “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
Matthew McConaughey, “Magic Mike”
Eddie Redmayne, “Les Miserables”
Andy Serkis, “The Hobbit”

Best Supporting Actress

Not to drive this point home too hard, but this is another category that’s stronger than Best Actress this year (at least they’re making small strong roles for women!). Amy Adams should pick up her fourth nomination in eight years (damn girl) and while she was my early pick for her quietly stunning work in “The Master,” I’ve finally joined the rest of the chorus and given in to Anne Hathaway, who sings her ass off AND gets her head shaved in “Les Mis.” She was also Catwoman Selina Kyle. So she had a good year.

Predictions:
Amy Adams, “The Master”
Anne Dowd, “Compliance”
Anne Hathaway, “Les Miserables”
Helen Hunt, “The Sessions”
Sally Field, “Lincoln”

Other Contenders:
Samantha Barks, “Les Miserables”
Nicole Kidman, “The Paperboy”
Maggie Smith, “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel”
Jacki Weaver, “Silver Linings Playbook”
Rachel Weisz, “The Deep Blue Sea”

Best Original Screenplay

Predictions:
“Django Unchained”
“Flight”
“The Master”
“Moonrise Kingdom”
“Zero Dark Thirty”

Other Contenders:
“Amour”
“Looper”
“Middle of Nowhere”

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predictions:
“Argo”
“Beasts of the Southern Wild”
“Life of Pi”
“Lincoln”
“Silver Linings Playbook”

Other Contenders:
“Cloud Atlas”
“Les Miserables”
“Perks of Being a Wallflower”

Best Animated Feature

Predictions:

“Brave”
“Frankenweenie”
“ParaNorman”
“Rise of the Guardians”
“Wreck-It Ralph”

Other Contenders:
“Hotel Transylvania”
“The Pirates: Band of Misfits”
“The Rabbi’s Cat”

Best Foreign Film

Predictions:
“Amour”
“Beyond the Hills”
“The Intouchables”
“No”
“A Royal Affair”

Other Contenders:
“Kon-Tiki”
“Sister”

Best Documentary

Predictions:
“Bully”
“The Gatekeepers”
“How to Survive a Plague”
“The Invisible War”
“Searching for Sugar Man”

Other Contenders:
“Detropia”
“The House I Live In”
“This Is Not a Film”
“Mea Maxima Culpa”

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